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TREND analysis (and risk assessment) Trend analysis is fundamental to managing a firm’s value chains and its competitive advantage. While it is encouraging when firms are hopeful for their future, many variables can jeopardize their competitive advantage (see competitive and industry assessment). Unfortunately, there are no oracles. Hence, we recommend to our clients that they imbed risk assessments with their market projections in order to: 1. Safeguard long term investments and strategic assets (relationships included). 2. Display consistency and poise in pursuit of leadership and competitive qualities. 3. Negotiate and develop powerful strategic alliances and channel partner relationships for the long term with confidence. Our approach, at VXTConsulting, is to review the market and industry projection data -or in its absence infer and assess possible scenarios- to approximate and evaluate implications on our customers’ competitive positioning strategy such as: Ø Evolution and trends in customer needs and behavior, and shifts in the customers' perception of value. Ø Emerging practices and business models of the industry as well as in other related or emerging industry sectors. Ø Long term domestic and global economic trends. Ø Change and evolution of the five industry forces. Ø Changes and cycles of the industry structure. Ø Evolution of price and cost drivers for the industry and/or specific segments. The outcome of our trend analysis provides our clients with a mitigated picture, balancing opportunistic projections with risk assessment. As we focus on competitive advantage and positioning strategies, our reports zoom in on: 1. Identification of future market needs and structure. 2. Evolution of our clients’ core competencies and leadership position. 3. Sales and profitability forecasts of the firm. 4. Regulatory, competitive (5 forces) and environmental influences on opportunity. 5. Risk assessment and strategic options for contingency or recovery. 6. A strategic roadmap and milestones to get there. 7. Long term SWOT analysis and assessment of potential competitive threats. We emphasize that the overarching benefit of the trend analysis remains the fact that it introduces a long term perspective in the strategic development process of the firm. It allows the firm to safeguard its assets by paring against costly mistakes in strategic positioning and relationship management, and to plan its competitive development and investments respectfully of potential future opportunities. |
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